Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
