A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
